This paper analyzes how households’ optimistic belief in their prospective income or macroeconomic conditions affects their borrowing decisions. Empirical analysis based on 2012-13 Survey of Household Finances and Living Conditions, released from Statistics Korea, shows that households with the expectation of increase in their income or house prices tend to take out larger amounts of loans than those who are not optimistic about future economic conditions. In addition, the fraction of households that hold any type of debt is higher among optimistic households than non-optimistic households. Furthermore, optimistic households are more likely to issue new debt than non-optimistic households are.

This paper then examines how optimistic belief about future income and interest rates influences household borrowing, consumption and default decisions. Even when actual income does not increase, households tend to loan and consume more on the expectation of income increase. However, if the economic environment does not turn out as expected, this could result in a sharp increase in the household default rate and a decrease in aggregate consumption.

These empirical and quantitative exercises give us following lessons. First, policy makers need to communicate with market participants in order to share objective situation about economic conditions. Second, government needs to take proactive measures, via tax or macroprudential policies, to prevent an abrupt increase in household debt.

발간사
요 약

제1장 서 론

제2장 문헌연구

제3장 경기에 대한 낙관적 기대감이 가계부채에 미치는 효과
　제1절 요약통계 분석
　제2절 계량분석

제4장 가계대출모형
　제1절 기본환경
　제2절 가구의 의사결정
　제3절 금융기관의 의사결정
　제4절 정상상태균형(steady-state equilibrium)의 정의

제5장 가계대출모형 캘리브레이션(Calibration)
　제1절 파라미터 설정
　제2절 정상상태 경제 분석

제6장 낙관적 기대감이 가계부채에 미치는 효과(시뮬레이션)
　제1절 소득 증가가 가계부채에 미치는 효과
　제2절 소득 증가에 대한 낙관적 기대감이 가계부채에 미치는 효과
　제3절 이자율 감소가 가계부채에 미치는 효과
　제4절 이자율 감소에 대한 기대감이 가계부채에 미치는 효과

제7장 결론 및 시사점

참고문헌
부　　록
ABSTRACT