This research monograph builds a Overlapping Generations Model to study the effects of Korea's demographic transition on the GDP growth rate in the long-run. The model incorporates the population projection through 2060 by Statistics Korea and the effects of low fertility and rise in life expectancy on the output growth rate are studied. In the model, endogenous responses of female labor are also considered. Under the assumption that the TFP growth rate will be slowed moderately in the future, maintaining 1.3% per annum, the GDP growth rate of the Korean economy is projected to slow down to 1.1% per annum in 2050s from 4.0% in 2000s. The shrinking workforce due to persistently low fertility will play a significant role in the slow-down. The rise in life expectancy will play a mitigating role, but the magnitude of its effect is not large enough to offset the negative effect of the low fertility.

Preface
Executive Summary

Chapter 1 Introduction
　Section 1 Research Objectives
　Section 2 Changes in Korea’s Demographic Structure

Chapter 2 Research Methodology and Literature Review
　Section 1 Production Function Approach
　Section 2 Structural Model Approach

Chapter 3 Model Economy
　Section 1 Population Structure
　Section 2 Utility Maximization Problem of Households
　Section 3 Production and Market Clearing
　Section 4 Definition of Equilibrium

Chapter 4 Model Quantification
　Section 1 Population Structure
　Section 2 Household Utility Function and Age-Specific Productivity
　Section 3 Production Function
　Section 4 Determination of Other Parameters

Chapter 5 Model Analysis Results
　Section 1 Model Explanatory Power
　Section 2 Future Projections and Analysis Based on Benchmark Model
　Section 3 Impact Analysis of Declining Birth Rates and Increasing Life Expectancy

Chapter 6 Scenario Analysis Results
　Section 1 Scenario Analysis Based on Population Projection Assumptions
　Section 2 Analysis Based on Assumptions of Total Factor Productivity Growth
　Section 3 Impact of Female Labor Supply and Policy Implications

Chapter 7 Summary and Conclusion

References
Appendix
ABSTRACT