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KDI - Korea Development Institute

KDI - Korea Development Institute



Research Monograph Housing Market Regulations and Housing Supply: Focusing on LTV, DSR, Property Tax, and the Improvement of Pre-Sale Housing December 31, 2022


Series No. 2022-09

Research Monograph KOR Housing Market Regulations and Housing Supply: Focusing on LTV, DSR, Property Tax, and the Improvement of Pre-Sale Housing #Macroeconomic Model #Real Estate #Financial Supervisory and Policy
DOI P-ISBN979-11-5932-823-7 E-ISBN979-11-5932-826-8

December 31, 2022

  • 프로필
    SONG, Inho
  • KDI
  • KDI
The Korean government often implements financial regulations, such as the Loan-to-Value (LTV) and Debt-Service-Ratio (DSR), ratios, to stabilize the housing market. This study investigates the effectiveness of these policies in the housing market and, if effective, determines whether they enhance the utility for housing consumers.

Additionally, the government employs housing supply policies, which greatly impact the housing market. Housing provision is a lengthy and capital-intensive process. Korea supplies most of the new housing through a system known as the pre-sale policy. In fact, this system has consistently faced the challenge of overheating subscriptions for over 40 years. In light of the current housing market dynamics, Chapter 3 explores possible improvements to the existing housing supply policy.

As for the effect of financial regulation, the policy that lowers the upper limit of the LTV ratio from 70% to 40% reduces household loans by more than 31% while increasing the relative price of housing by 0.005%. If the upper limit on LTV ratios is lowered, households experience a low productivity shock, making it difficult to maintain consumption levels by increasing mortgage lending when incomes fall. As a result, they are motivated to increase savings. When the capital stock in the model economy increases due to the increase in household savings, the real interest rate falls. Wealthy households with relatively large amounts of assets reduce the share of financial assets in their asset portfolios and increase the share of housing because the real interest rate, which is the rate of return on investment in financial assets, has fallen.

The analysis in this study reveals that policies tightening household lending regulations do not effectively curtail housing prices in the long run. If the goal is long-term price stabilization, the study suggests that increasing the supply of new housing is more effective than suppressing housing demand through stricter lending regulations.

Lastly, the study proposes a new policy model for improving housing supply, especially for the younger demographic. This model seeks to address both the housing service and investment needs of younger people. Regarding public offerings and transactions of fractional ownership, housing demand is categorized into the demand for residential services and the demand for investment in housing assets. In the current pre-sale subscription method, the share of the house is divided, and public offering subscriptions are received. This method distributes shares to each subscriber in proportion to the competition rate for subscriptions. In this scenario, new housing is provided to young adults as rental properties in line with the existing subscription method to meet the need for residential demand.
요 약

제1장 서 론(송인호)

제2장 가계대출 규제정책의 거시경제적 효과 분석(석병훈/유혜미)
 제1절 서 론
 제2절 2017년 이후 가계대출 규제 추이
 제3절 모 형
 제4절 모수 설정
 제5절 분석 결과
 제6절 결론 및 시사점

제3장 주택공급방식의 개선 방향: 청년의 주택자산 확충을 중심으로(송인호)
 제1절 서 론
 제2절 청년의 주택매매 비중 확대 배경과 진단
 제3절 부동산산업에 블록체인의 도입: 청년의 주택자산 확충을 위한 새로운 제안
 제4절 주택의 구분소유권 증권화에 대한 국민인식조사
 제5절 국내시장에 블록체인 기술 적용을 위한 방향
 제6절 결론 및 시사점
 부 록

제4장 결론 및 정책적 시사점(송인호)

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