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Policy Study Inflation Expectations Through the Lens of the Slack in the Real Estate Asset Market December 30, 2023

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Series No. 2023-02

Policy Study KOR Inflation Expectations Through the Lens of the Slack in the Real Estate Asset Market #Inflation, Interest Rates, and Monetary Policy #Macroprudential Policy #Real Estate
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.22740/kdi.ps.2023.02 P-ISBN979-11-5932-847-3 E-ISBN979-11-5932-855-8

December 30, 2023

  • 프로필
    Cho, Duksang
Summary
This study examines inflation expectations implied in the real estate asset market. Land is an asset that accounts for more than half of South Korea's national wealth and, like labor, is an essential input factor despite its inelastic supply. Based on this idea, we examine whether a similar regularity as the Phillips curve observed in the labor market is also observed in the real estate asset market. The main results are as follows. First, an increase in the relative price of land can be a pass-through, transferring inflationary pressure over the years. Second, comparing the existing expected inflation indices, an expected inflation rate extracted from the real estate asset market can provide additional information. Third, theoretical analysis shows that the relative price of land and expected inflation can be positively correlated in general equilibrium.
Contents
발간사
요 약

제1장 서 론

제2장 부동산 자산시장과 인플레이션의 상관관계
 제1절 국내총생산 대비 국부의 배율로서 부동산 자산의 상대적 가치,
 제2절 시각적 단서

제3장 기대인플레이션 지표로서의 부동산 자산의 상대적 가치
 제1절 미래 인플레이션에 대한 예측과 설명력
 제2절 기대인플레이션을 고려한 뉴케인지언 필립스곡선과의 정합성
 제3절 소비와 인플레이션에 미치는 영향

제4장 이론적 논의
 제1절 부동산 자산가격, 가계신용, 그리고 화폐수량설
 제2절 부동산 자산시장 균형 조건과 기대인플레이션

제5장맺음말

참고문헌
부 록
ABSTRACT
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