This study conducts a multifaceted analysis of the evolving relationship between North Korea and Russia following the Russia Ukraine war, employing objective data and rigorous quantitative methodologies. Using big data based indicators that quantify interstate relations, the study first examines trends in North Korea Russia relations over the past decade. The analysis shows that bilateral relations deteriorated sharply after 2016, when Russia, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, joined international sanctions against North Korea. Relations began to recover gradually after 2018, as North Korea pursued summit diplomacy and sought re-engagement with the global community. In 2020, this recovery was again disrupted when North Korea sealed its borders, citing COVID-19 preventive measures. This trajectory reversed once more following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, ushering in a swift alignment of strategic interests and closer bilateral ties that brought cooperation to a level unprecedented in recent history.

The study next examines North Korea Russia external economic relations through a data-driven lens. North Korea’s foreign trade structure remains heavily oriented toward China, with Russia accounting for only a marginal share. Nevertheless, Russia continues to serve as a key supplier of strategic goods, including petroleum products and power generation equipment. Russian investment in North Korea has been largely confined to transportation and logistics infrastructure, and Russian firms have generally maintained a cautious stance due to high political risks and the burden of international sanctions. However, the outbreak of the Russia Ukraine war has altered this dynamic. Russia’s acute labor shortages have coincided with North Korea’s need to secure foreign currency, and there are indications that the overseas dispatch of North Korean workers has continued despite the sanctions environment. In the tourism sector, while North Korea has sought to attract Russian tourists, foreign currency earnings remain negligible, suggesting that the economic spillover effects from tourism cooperation are likely to remain marginal.

Furthermore, the study empirically evaluates the impact of North Korea Russia military cooperation on the North Korean economy. Combining the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET)’s North Korean Industry and Enterprise Database with satellite nighttime light imagery and jangmadang(market) exchange rate and price data, the analysis finds that production activity increased significantly in regions centered on heavy industry and military-related industries following the strengthening of military cooperation. In particular, nighttime light intensity rose sharply for firms producing artillery shells and small arms, directly related to the Russia Ukraine war. In contrast, industrial activity in light industries, including food processing, declined, indicating an intensifying pattern of unbalanced, military-centered growth. This trend is also corroborated by the Bank of Korea’s estimates of North Korea’s economic growth rates. Since 2023, heavy and chemical industries have shown notably strong growth, while light industries have remained stagnant. These findings suggest that while military cooperation has bolstered productivity in specific sectors, especially military and heavy industries, these gains have not extended to the civilian economy. Moreover, given recent spikes in exchange rates and prices, it remains debatable whether Russian supplies of food and petroleum products have improved general living standards. Overall, the post-cooperation growth of the North Korean economy appears structurally skewed toward the military sector rather than a broad-based industrial recovery.

These findings offer several policy implications. North Korea is widely viewed as one of the primary beneficiaries of the Russia Ukraine war. Although the specific goods and quantities North Korea has received in exchange for military supplies and troop deployments remain unclear, the exchange has likely had a positive impact on the North Korean economy. This study demonstrates that heavy and chemical industries, including munitions factories, have been the principal beneficiaries of the deepening alignment. However, the expansion of military supplies to Russia warrants close attention, as it may induce broader changes to North Korea’s industrial structure and technological capabilities that extend beyond simple military cooperation. While increased munitions production stimulates core heavy industrial sectors, including metals, machinery, chemicals, and electronics―potentially catalyzing civilian industries and improving household welfare to some extent―the domestic markets are mired in severe instability, marked by soaring prices, exchange rate volatility, and intensified state control following the COVID-19 pandemic. This appears to have exacerbated the polarization between the formal sector, which reaps the rewards from closer ties, and the marginalized informal sector. Should the Russia Ukraine war end, the munitions-driven special demand of Russia will subside. If the North Korean regime maintains its strict control over jangmadangs(markets) after the boom, the economic hardships facing the North Korean population are likely to intensify.

ABSTRACT

Preface
Summary

Chapter 1 Introduction

Chapter 2 Changes in North Korea Russia Relations
　Section 1 Review of Previous Studies
　Section 2 Analysis of Trends in North Korea Russia Relations

Chapter 3 North Korea Russia Economic Relations and Outlook:
Focusing on External Economic Data
　Section 1 Foreign Trade
　Section 2 Russia’s Investment in and Aid to North Korea
　Section 3 North Korean Overseas Workers in Russia
　Section 4 Russian Tourism to North Korea
　Section 5 Summary: External Economic Relations between North Korea and Russia

Chapter 4 Effects of Deepening North Korea Russia Ties on the North Korean Economy:
Focusing on Satellite Data
　Section 1 Satellite Data: Nighttime Lights
　Section 2 Effects of Deepening North Korea Russia Ties on Internal Industrial Activity in North Korea: Regional Analysis
　Section 3 Effects of Deepening North Korea Russia Ties on Internal Industrial Activity in North Korea: Industry- and Plant-Level Analysis
　Section 4 Summary

Chapter 5 Conclusion and Policy Implications

References
Appendix