Joint Seminar on
「Demographic Change: The Future of Korea and Policy Responses」

  The Ministry of Planning and Budget (MPB) and the National Assembly Futures Institute (NAFI) jointly hosted a seminar titled 「Demographic Change: The Future of Korea and Policy Responses」on October 29, 2026, at the National Assembly Members' Office Building in Seoul.
  Organized by KDI as part of the government’s efforts to formulate the 2045 Mid- to Long-Term National Development Strategy, the seminar examined the social ripple effects of declining births across the entire life cycle and discussed directions for mid- to long-term strategies in response. The event also served as an opportunity for the legislative and executive branches to explore ways to work together and to build broader national awareness and consensus on demographic change.



[Opening Session]

  Mr. Hong-geun Bak, Minister of Planning and Budget, described demographic change in his opening remarks not as an uncertainty but as a “foreseeable future,” stressing that it goes beyond population decline and aging to bear directly on the sustainability of society as a whole, including jobs, education, national defense, welfare, and balanced regional development. He announced plans to pursue a major shift in population strategy from quantitative growth focused on expanding the size of the population toward qualitative growth, and to fundamentally redesign social and economic systems, including by actively leveraging advanced technologies such as AI and realistically overhauling immigration policy. Noting that demographic change affects generations, social groups, and regions differently, Minister Bak underscored the need for a social consensus on sharing its burdens fairly and pledged close cooperation with the National Assembly.
 

  Mr. Jeong-sik Cho, Speaker of the National Assembly, noted in his congratulatory remarks that the effects of more than a decade of declining births are rippling through schools, the military, and the labor market. He added, however, that this crisis also offers an opportunity to fundamentally review and restructure social systems built during a period of population expansion, presenting a tightly woven, life-cycle-based social safety net and new engines of future growth as the way forward. Speaker Cho pledged that the National Assembly would do its utmost to lead institutional reform and build social consensus as a partner in shaping Korea’s future.

  Mr. Ki-sik Kim, President of the National Assembly Futures Institute, pointed out in his welcoming remarks that Korea’s total fertility rate remains among the lowest in the world and that its population is aging faster than any other, while the time it takes young people to settle into stable jobs is growing longer even as the workforce shrinks. He stressed that responses to demographic change should not be confined to sector-specific measures, but should be pursued within a mid- to long-term population strategy in which policies on education, jobs, industry, and regions are closely interlinked. He also expressed hope that the seminar would serve as a starting point for translating research findings into policy and legislation, leading to sustained cooperation among participating institutions, including MPB, NAFI, and KDI.


[Presentations]

  Dr. Bo-kyung Min, Director of the Research Planning Office at NAFI, delivered a presentation titled “The Reality of the Demographic Cliff: Social Change Seen Through Declining Births and Data.” Dr. Min projected that the shock of declining births will spread sequentially and with time lags, reaching elementary schools (2027), universities (2034), military service (2038), and the labor market (2040s). Noting that the effects may be unevenly distributed across regions, Dr. Min emphasized that responses must go beyond individual ministries and be approached at the level of the national system, linking education, defense, labor, industry, and regional policy.
 

    Dr. Su-ji Ahn, Associcate Research Fellow at the Center fo populationg Studies at NAFI, presented on “Demographic Change and the Structural Transformation of the Labor Market: An Analysis of Labor Market Pathways in Early Adulthood.” Tracking 10-year labor market pathways after first job entry across cohorts using the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS), the analysis showed that more recent generations tend to stay in their first jobs for shorter periods and increasingly move between jobs with intervening spells of unemployment. Based on these findings, Dr. Ahn called for a policy shift beyond short-term employment outcomes toward strengthening the stability and continuity of young people’s career formation, job transitions, and social security in an era of population decline.  
 

  Dr. Ji-woon Kim, Professor of Economics at Hongik University, presented on “Demographic Change: Turning Crisis into an Opportunity for Transformation,” setting out four key strategies: slowing the pace of population decline, making better use of human resources, restructuring national systems, and responding to a super-aged society. Dr. Kim argued that Korea should move away from its conventional quantitative growth model toward sustainable growth and intergenerational coexistence centered on productivity gains and quality of life.


[Panel Discussion] 

  Following the presentations, a panel discussion was moderated by Mr. Ki-sik Kim, President of NAFI, and featured Mr. Jae-bong Song, Member of the National Assembly (the Democratic Party of Korea); Ms. Moon-sun Jang, Director General for Low Fertility Response at the Population Strategy Committee; Ms. Hyun-sook Kim, Director General for Population and Child Policy at the Ministry of Health and Welfare; Dr. Seulki Choi, President of the Population Association of Korea; and Dr. Joseph Han, Head of the Education & Labor Innovation Research Unit at KDI. The panelists agreed on the need for a whole-of-nation response to demographic change and on the importance of a comprehensive approach that goes beyond low-fertility measures to encompass education system reform, labor market stability, easing regional population imbalances, and preparing for a super-aged society.

  The joint seminar confirmed that demographic change driven by declining births is a “foreseeable future” already reshaping every sector of society, and provided a forum for the legislative and executive branches and research institutions to jointly explore directions for redesigning the national system as a whole.

Written by: Wanhee Jeon, Research Associate, Division of External Affairs, KDI  /  +82-44-550-4442, whjeon@kdi.re.kr