This study analyzes the risk of subway ridership in the metropolitan areas and seeks for measures that take into account such risks. To do this, risk of estimated ridership is first analyzed according to the changes of given origin-destination demand, then compares the ridership estimation of the feasibility study with the real ridership.

The result shows that the estimation risk (the dispersion of estimated ridership) is very high and the risk of the station ridership is much higher than that of whole line. Therefore, this study suggests interval estimated ridership instead of point estimated ridership in the appraisal of the construction of subway.

Other major studies include factual analysis on the risk of forecasted ridership centering on the differences between estimation before opening the subway and the real ridership after the subway has been opened to the public. The analysis shows that the average real ridership is only 26% of the forecasted ridership after the subway has been opened to the public. The subway constructed in the local metropolitan area is found to have much difference, while the Seoul metropolitan area shows that the average real ridership is 32% of the forecasted ridership, meaning the forecasted ridership in the local metropolitan area tends to be more optimistic. However, as basic data for forecasting ridership accumulates and analysis method develops with time, the accuracy of forecasting increases.

Based on the confirmed factors of estimation risks, this study seeks for consideration methods for the ridership estimation risk in feasibility studies. In order to avoid the inclination of optimistic assumption and implementation of the project, a measure is provided to systematically include objective outside views regarding ridership demand estimation in feasibility studies. Also, the sensitivity analysis of estimation of ridership demand is suggested.

The transparency of the estimation process is also emphasized. Recognizing that the accuracy of estimation has its own fundamental limitations, it is important to make the estimation process open and free for discussion.

Lastly, this study suggests management measures for risks of estimated ridership In order to reduce potential risks in the future, it is necessary to strengthen training programs for ridership demand analysts in order to heighten the confidence on estimation results, and to provide opportunities for related organizations to share the importance of the risk analysis of the forecasted ridership demand.

요 약

제1장 서 론

제2장 도시철도 교통량 추정 의의 및 기존 연구
　제1절 도시철도 교통량 예측 과정 및 의의
　제2절 교통량 추정 오차 분석에 관한 기존 연구 및 사례

제3장 도시철도 교통량 추정의 불확실성 분석
　제1절 서 론
　제2절 의사 O/D 자료 발생을 위한 모형 구축
　　1. O/D 모형 구축
　　2. 의사 O/D 통행량 생성
　제3절 도시철도 교통량 추정의 불확실성 분석
　　1. 의사 O/D 통행량을 이용한 통행배정
　　2. 통행량 추정에 대한 불확실성 분석
　제4절 소결론

제4장 도시철도 교통량 추정의 오차 분석
　제1절 서 론
　제2절 도시철도 교통량 추정 오차 분석
　　1. 교통량 추정 오차 정의 및 분석의 의의
　　2. 분석 자료
　　3. 개통연도 교통량 추정 오차 분석
　제3절 소결론

제5장 도시철도부문 교통량 추정의 오차 발생원인 및 감소 방안
　제1절 서 론
　제2절 도시철도 교통량 예측 오차 발생원인
　　1. 외생오차
　　2. 정치·제도·심리적 측면
　　3. 측정오차
　　4. 모형오차
　제3절 도시철도 교통량 추정 오차를 줄이기 위한 감소 방안
　　1. 모형 적합성 및 추정결과 검증 강화
　　2. 제도 개선 및 경험적 결과의 반영
　　3. 교통수요 추정의 투명성 제고
　　4. 교통량 추정 위험 고려

제6장 종합 및 결론

참고문헌

ABSTRACT