Research Monograph Macroeconomic Challenges and Policy Direction for the Post-COVID Era December 31, 2021

Series No. 2021-09
December 31, 2021
- Summary
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Korea experienced changes in its economic architecture in the aftermath of two major economic recessions, the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis. However, triggered by a non-economic factor of infectious disease rather than structural problems of internal and external economies, the COVID-19 crisis unfolded differently from the two previous downturns after 2020. In response, the Korean government carried out aggressive fiscal, monetary, and financial policy measures, together with the early signing of a currency swap agreement with the US. Its quick and decisive actions helped stem capital flight and swiftly stabilized the financial market. Another unique feature of the current crisis is its hugely uneven shocks among economic entities. Notably, the face-to-face service industry had a significant contraction due to its high susceptibility to contracting the virus. Still, asset prices soared even in the pandemic-induced recession thanks to abundant liquidity supplied into the market, widening the gaps in labor and asset income.
Based on the observations, this study intends to analyze the macroeconomic aspects of the ongoing situation and take lessons from it. While investigating the crisis itself, it also attempts to make projections of possible changes in the post-pandemic world and offer policy implications. It first analyzes the pandemic recession on the basis of an economic cycle and identifies what sets this incidence apart from past economic downturns. Then, it turns to the labor market to analyze the impact on jobs and forecast possible structural changes while further examining the features of firms that fared relatively well. Lastly, fiscal and monetary policy measures during the crisis are evaluated to provide implications for the future macroeconomic policy direction.
- Contents
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Preface
Executive Summary
Chapter 1 Introduction
Chapter 2 COVID-19 Pandemic and Business Cycles: Focusing on Comparisons with Past Economic Crises
Section 1 Introduction
Section 2 Characteristics of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Section 3 Policy Responses After COVID-19
Section 4 Summary and Conclusion
References
Appendix
Chapter 3 Structural Changes in the Post-COVID Labor Market
Section 1 Introduction
Section 2 Structural Model
Section 3 Parameter Setting
Section 4 Employment Shock in the COVID-19 Era
Section 5 Changes in Employment Structure After COVID-19
Section 6 Conclusion and Policy Implications
References
Chapter 4 Corporate Diversification and Economic Volatility
Section 1 Introduction
Section 2 Literature Review
Section 3 Basic Data
Section 4 Theoretical Model
Section 5 Empirical Analysis
Section 6 Conclusion
References
Appendix
Chapter 5 The Role of Fiscal Policy for Economic Stability
Section 1 Introduction
Section 2 Analysis of Previous Research
Section 3 Evaluation of the Korean Government's Fiscal Response to the COVID-19 Crisis
Section 4 Evaluation and Implications for Post COVID-19 Fiscal Planning
Section 5 Summary and Conclusion
References
Appendix
Chapter 6 Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Policy Mix in a Low Inflation, Low Interest Rate Environment
Section 1 Introduction
Section 2 Monetary Policy in South Korea as Seen through Real Interest Rates
Section 3 Monetary Policy in the COVID-19 Crisis
Section 4 Macroeconomic Policy Mix
Section 5 Discussion on Monetary Policy Framework
Section 6 Conclusion
References
Appendix
Chapter 7 Conclusion
ABSTRACT
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