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Research Monograph Macroeconomic Challenges and Policy Direction for the Post-COVID Era December 31, 2021

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Series No. 2021-09

Research Monograph KOR Macroeconomic Challenges and Policy Direction for the Post-COVID Era #Consumption, Investment, Export-Import, and Balance of Payments #Inflation, Interest Rates, and Monetary Policy #Fiscal Balance and Fiscal Policy
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.22740/kdi.rm.2021.09 P-ISBN979-11-5932-779-7 E-ISBN979-11-5932-782-7

December 31, 2021

  • 프로필
    Kyu-Chul Jung
  • 프로필
    Duksang Cho
  • KDI
    OH,Jiyoon
  • KDI
  • KDI
    AUM, Sangmin
  • KDI
    HUR, Jinwook
Summary
Korea experienced changes in its economic architecture in the aftermath of two major economic recessions, the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis. However, triggered by a non-economic factor of infectious disease rather than structural problems of internal and external economies, the COVID-19 crisis unfolded differently from the two previous downturns after 2020. In response, the Korean government carried out aggressive fiscal, monetary, and financial policy measures, together with the early signing of a currency swap agreement with the US. Its quick and decisive actions helped stem capital flight and swiftly stabilized the financial market. Another unique feature of the current crisis is its hugely uneven shocks among economic entities. Notably, the face-to-face service industry had a significant contraction due to its high susceptibility to contracting the virus. Still, asset prices soared even in the pandemic-induced recession thanks to abundant liquidity supplied into the market, widening the gaps in labor and asset income.

Based on the observations, this study intends to analyze the macroeconomic aspects of the ongoing situation and take lessons from it. While investigating the crisis itself, it also attempts to make projections of possible changes in the post-pandemic world and offer policy implications. It first analyzes the pandemic recession on the basis of an economic cycle and identifies what sets this incidence apart from past economic downturns. Then, it turns to the labor market to analyze the impact on jobs and forecast possible structural changes while further examining the features of firms that fared relatively well. Lastly, fiscal and monetary policy measures during the crisis are evaluated to provide implications for the future macroeconomic policy direction.
Contents
Preface
Executive Summary

Chapter 1 Introduction

Chapter 2 COVID-19 Pandemic and Business Cycles: Focusing on Comparisons with Past Economic Crises
 Section 1 Introduction
 Section 2 Characteristics of the COVID-19 Pandemic
 Section 3 Policy Responses After COVID-19
 Section 4 Summary and Conclusion
 References
 Appendix

Chapter 3 Structural Changes in the Post-COVID Labor Market
 Section 1 Introduction
 Section 2 Structural Model
 Section 3 Parameter Setting
 Section 4 Employment Shock in the COVID-19 Era
 Section 5 Changes in Employment Structure After COVID-19
 Section 6 Conclusion and Policy Implications
 References

Chapter 4 Corporate Diversification and Economic Volatility
 Section 1 Introduction
 Section 2 Literature Review
 Section 3 Basic Data
 Section 4 Theoretical Model
 Section 5 Empirical Analysis
 Section 6 Conclusion
 References
 Appendix

Chapter 5 The Role of Fiscal Policy for Economic Stability
 Section 1 Introduction
 Section 2 Analysis of Previous Research
 Section 3 Evaluation of the Korean Government's Fiscal Response to the COVID-19 Crisis
 Section 4 Evaluation and Implications for Post COVID-19 Fiscal Planning
 Section 5 Summary and Conclusion
 References
 Appendix

Chapter 6 Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Policy Mix in a Low Inflation, Low Interest Rate Environment
 Section 1 Introduction
 Section 2 Monetary Policy in South Korea as Seen through Real Interest Rates
 Section 3 Monetary Policy in the COVID-19 Crisis
 Section 4 Macroeconomic Policy Mix
 Section 5 Discussion on Monetary Policy Framework
 Section 6 Conclusion
 References
 Appendix

Chapter 7 Conclusion

ABSTRACT
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