Research Monograph Market Price System in North Korea: Policy Perspectives December 31, 2024
Series No. 2024-06
December 31, 2024
- Summary
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This study revisits North Korea’s market price system to (i) address recent doubts about the reliability of external price observations using a long-run commodity-price series and (ii) broaden analysis beyond staples to include services, labor, finance, and quasi-taxes. Based on an original field survey in Pyongyang, Sinuiju, and Hyesan from September 2023 to October 2024, it compiles a long-run commodity-price series, capturing 55 service prices and approximately 40 quasi-tax items. Econometric time-series analysis reveals linkages between key North Korean commodity prices, Chinese and international benchmark prices, and the market exchange rate (North Korean won/U.S. dollar), while descriptive statistics systematize the incidence and regional variation of non-commodity prices.
Three main findings emerge. First, despite well-known reliability issues in North Korean market price data, externally collected observations remain informative, as inconsistencies across sources reflect equilibrium features of thin, segmented markets rather than mere reporting errors. Second, commodity prices show a relatively stable, competitive formation with clear international pass-through effects before the 2020 border closure, whereas service fees, unofficial financial rates, and quasi-taxes show greater dispersion and stronger dependence on local market power and informality. Third, quasi-taxes impose a significant economic burden, with households facing a rolling menu of 35-40 compulsory contributions―averaging four items per month and totaling 34,000-50,000 North Korean won―consuming a notable share of disposable income.
These results underscore the need to integrate non-commodity prices into future assessments of household welfare, regional inequality, and the transmission of external shocks within North Korea’s hybrid economy.
- Contents
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Abstract
Preface
Summary (Korean)
Chapter 1. Introduction (Suk Lee)
Chapter 2. Basic Analysis of North Korean Market Prices and Data (Suk Lee)
Section 1. Introduction
Section 2. Micro Survey Analysis: Market Structure, Data, and Observations
Section 3. Comparative Analysis: Structure, Composition, and Characteristics of North Korean Market Prices
Section 4. Trend Analysis: Reliability of North Korean Market Price Observations
Section 5. Implications and Significance
References
Appendix
Chapter 3. Characteristics and Determinants of Commodity Prices in North Korean Markets (Jinwook Nam)
Section 1. Preface
Section 2. Formation and Characteristics of Commodity Prices in North Korean Markets
Section 3. Empirical Analysis of Determinants of Commodity Prices in North Korean Markets
Section 4. Summary and Policy Implications
References
Appendix
Chapter 4. Non-Commodity Prices in North Korean Markets (Ji Young Choi)
Section 1. Preface
Section 2. Service Prices
Section 3. Taxes and Quasi-Taxes
Section 4. Evaluation and Implications
References
Chapter 5. Conclusion (Suk Lee)
Appendix
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