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Research Monograph Market Price System in North Korea: Policy Perspectives December 31, 2024

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Series No. 2024-06

Research Monograph KOR Market Price System in North Korea: Policy Perspectives #General(Other)
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.22740/kdi.rm.2024.06 P-ISBN979-11-5932-977-7 E-ISBN979-11-5932-991-3

December 31, 2024

  • 프로필
    Suk Lee
  • 프로필
    Jinwook Nam
  • KDI
    Ji Young Choi
Summary
This study revisits North Korea’s market price system to (i) address recent doubts about the reliability of external price observations using a long-run commodity-price series and (ii) broaden analysis beyond staples to include services, labor, finance, and quasi-taxes. Based on an original field survey in Pyongyang, Sinuiju, and Hyesan from September 2023 to October 2024, it compiles a long-run commodity-price series, capturing 55 service prices and approximately 40 quasi-tax items. Econometric time-series analysis reveals linkages between key North Korean commodity prices, Chinese and international benchmark prices, and the market exchange rate (North Korean won/U.S. dollar), while descriptive statistics systematize the incidence and regional variation of non-commodity prices.

Three main findings emerge. First, despite well-known reliability issues in North Korean market price data, externally collected observations remain informative, as inconsistencies across sources reflect equilibrium features of thin, segmented markets rather than mere reporting errors. Second, commodity prices show a relatively stable, competitive formation with clear international pass-through effects before the 2020 border closure, whereas service fees, unofficial financial rates, and quasi-taxes show greater dispersion and stronger dependence on local market power and informality. Third, quasi-taxes impose a significant economic burden, with households facing a rolling menu of 35-40 compulsory contributions―averaging four items per month and totaling 34,000-50,000 North Korean won―consuming a notable share of disposable income.

These results underscore the need to integrate non-commodity prices into future assessments of household welfare, regional inequality, and the transmission of external shocks within North Korea’s hybrid economy.
Contents
Abstract

Preface
Summary (Korean)

Chapter 1. Introduction (Suk Lee)

Chapter 2. Basic Analysis of North Korean Market Prices and Data (Suk Lee)
 Section 1. Introduction
 Section 2. Micro Survey Analysis: Market Structure, Data, and Observations
 Section 3. Comparative Analysis: Structure, Composition, and Characteristics of North Korean Market Prices
 Section 4. Trend Analysis: Reliability of North Korean Market Price Observations
 Section 5. Implications and Significance
 References
 Appendix

Chapter 3. Characteristics and Determinants of Commodity Prices in North Korean Markets (Jinwook Nam)
 Section 1. Preface
 Section 2. Formation and Characteristics of Commodity Prices in North Korean Markets
 Section 3. Empirical Analysis of Determinants of Commodity Prices in North Korean Markets
 Section 4. Summary and Policy Implications
 References
 Appendix

Chapter 4. Non-Commodity Prices in North Korean Markets (Ji Young Choi)
 Section 1. Preface
 Section 2. Service Prices
 Section 3. Taxes and Quasi-Taxes
 Section 4. Evaluation and Implications
 References

Chapter 5. Conclusion (Suk Lee)
 Appendix
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