KDI Korea Development Institute

Summary

Research Monograph KOR The Effects of Serious Accidents Punishment Act on Labor Market Outcomes

This study examines the effects of the Serious Accidents Punishment Act (SAPA) on labor market outcomes to derive policy implications. SAPA was enacted in January 2021 and implemented in January 2022.

Chapter 2 summarizes the institutional structure and introduces key research questions. Specifically, this chapter reviews the legislative background, the structure of the law, early judicial trends, and existing literature on SAPA. Based on this review, I provide theoretical predictions regarding the effects of SAPA using a simple model where firms choose their level of safety investment and labor demand. The model predicts that while SAPA is likely to reduce accidents by increasing safety investment, it may simultaneously lead to a reduction in labor demand.

Chapter 3 analyzes data from an original firm-level survey to examine current situation of the Safety and Health Management Systems. I find that firms increased their safety investment following the implementation of SAPA. However, despite the quantitative expansion of safety investment, I find that the qualitative improvement of the Safety and Health Management Systems remains limited.

Chapters 4 through 6 present causal analyses of SAPA’s effects. In Chapter 4, I study the effects on the labor market for safety experts, a key input for safety investment. By applying Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) to observations from the Regional Employment Survey, I find that SAPA increased the employment of safety experts, with the effect growing from 2022 to 2024. However, the effect on wages was pronounced only in the short run; while SAPA increased wages in the second half of 2022, the effect became smaller and statistically insignificant by the second half of 2024, implying a highly elastic supply of safety experts.

Chapter 5 examines effects on workplace accident fatalities, the primary policy objective of SAPA. Using a Difference-in-Differences (DID) framework that exploits industry-level variation in exposure to SAPA, I find that the Act reduced three "traditional" types of workplace accidents: falls, crushes, and collisions. However, there is no evidence of significant effects on other accident types.

Chapter 6 investigates the effects of SAPA on labor demand for high-risk occupations. I combine information on occupation-level risk exposure and labor market outcomes using an empirical strategy in Continuous Treatment Difference-in-Differences framework. The results indicate that following the implementation of SAPA, employment levels in higher-risk occupations decreased relative to those with lower risk exposure.

Chapter 7 concludes the study by synthesizing the empirical findings and deriving policy implications.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Who Cares for Us?: Policies on Eldercare Workers

South Korea reached the super-aged mark in December 2024, with over 20% of its population aged 65 and older. Eldercare jobs, labor-intensive and emotionally demanding yet accessible to low-skilled workers at low wages, are globally undesirable, leading to labor shortages in advanced economies. As baby boomers (born 1955-1963) enter the late elderly (75 and older) after 2030, demand for eldercare services is projected to surge, worsening supply-demand imbalances.

This study examines the current state and limitations of Korea’s eldercare workforce to propose policy improvements. It estimates eldercare labor supply and demand to forecast the scale of labor shortage and discusses strategies for workforce expansion. Additionally, an empirical analysis assesses how quantitative and qualitative workforce expansion impacts the quality of life for residents in long-term care facilities, providing policy insights.

Chapter 2 forecasts demand for eldercare services and estimates the eldercare labor supply to assess the scale of labor shortage and analyze supply-demand imbalances at the national and metropolitan/provincial levels. The findings indicate that the rapid rise in the super-aged population will sharply increase demand, outpacing the growth of care worker supply and deepening supply-demand imbalances. Regional variations in aging and available workforce are expected to widen the regional supply disparities, suggesting the need for proactive and region-specific workforce expansion policies. This chapter also estimates demand for services that reflect improvements in elderly health in the past decade, highlighting that workforce expansion alone is insufficient to resolve the supply-demand gap amid sustained demand growth. Managing demand for long-term care services through elderly health promotion and functional improvements is essential.

Chapter 3 investigates how expanding the eldercare workforce in long-term facilities affects health outcomes for care recipients. Using health insurance claims and long-term care insurance data, it examines the impact of the 2018 minimum wage increase and the 2022 staffing requirement changes on facility employment and recipients’ medical service utilization. The results indicate that workforce expansion is associated with reduced medical service use, leading to positive health outcomes, suggesting investment in care worker expansion can be a cost-effective policy measure.

Chapter 4 empirically analyzes the impact of enhancing nursing functions in eldercare workers on care recipients and discusses the need for improving their expertise. This chapter examines how changes in nursing staff skill composition following the 2018 minimum wage increase and the specialized nursing care unit pilot program launched in 2019 affected recipients' medical service utilization. The analysis shows that strengthening medical functions in long-term care facilities significantly reduces residents' use of high-cost inpatient services, leading to lower overall healthcare expenditures. While the increased costs of long-term care services partially offset these savings, the results suggest that the specialized nursing care unit program aligns with policy goals of optimizing healthcare utilization among facility residents.

Chapter 5 identifies the characteristics of foreign care workers using administrative data, albeit to a limited extent, aiming to enhance understanding of migrant labor in the eldercare sector. With restricted foreign worker employment in eldercare roles in Korea, this chapter assesses the potential impacts of their integration through existing literature. Furthermore, it reviews specific policy responses from countries utilizing migrant worker policies to mitigate eldercare labor shortages and discusses implications for Korea's eldercare sector.

Chapter 6 proposes future policy directions for eldercare workforce expansion based on the findings from the preceding chapters. First, quantitative workforce expansion enhances job quality, reduces workload through care technology, and utilizes migrant labor. Second, elevating the professional competence of the eldercare workforce involves strengthening nursing functions in long-term care facilities, clarifying the scope of nursing care that can be provided within such facilities, and enhancing education and training in geriatric medicine for facility staff. Third, managing care demand through health promotion entails implementing mental health and chronic disease management strategies to delay the need for eldercare. By addressing these areas, this study aims to contribute to the development of sustainable policies that ensure adequate workforce supply while improving the quality of eldercare services in Korea.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Revisiting the DPRK Economy: Structural Evidence from Firms and Industries

This study aims to analyze the structure of the North Korean economy by utilizing an industry-firm database constructed from North Korean media reports. By examining firms and industries at the micro level and cross-validating findings with satellite-based indicators, the study assesses whether media reports can provide meaningful insights into actual economic activities.

Chapter 2 reconstructs the original database obtained from the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET), covering the period from 2000 to 2024. Separate annual datasets were consolidated into a unified format, with duplicate entries removed and inconsistencies in firm names standardized. In cases where firm identifiers differed despite referring to the same entity, a single identifier was adopted, and additional information, such as industry codes and administrative regions, was supplemented when necessary. As a result of this reconstruction, the number of observed firms increased from 3,557 to 3,973, while the total number of media reports expanded from 86,116 to 153,047 compared to the original KIET database.

Chapter 3 analyzes the distribution and evolution of North Korean firms, demonstrating that media coverage carries economic implications beyond purely propagandistic purposes. At the industry level, the share of media coverage shows a strong correlation with the Bank of Korea’s estimates of industry-specific GDP shares. Investment-related reports are found to be significantly associated with increases in production-related reports one to two years later, with the impact of investment coverage exceeding that of political coverage. At the firm level, the analysis also identifies firms that gained prominence or declined during specific periods. Firms that expanded after Kim Jong Un’s accession to power include Chongchongang Cascade Hydropower Plant, Tanchon Power Plant, and Sunchon Chemical Complex; those that experienced decline include Sinchang Coal Mine, Komdok Mine, and Huichon Machine Tool Factory. Following the imposition of international sanctions, rising firms include Sunchon Phosphate Fertilizer Factory, Equipment Assembly Complex, and Kosong County People’s Power Plant; declining firms include Chosan Youth Power Plant, Sariwon Coal Mine, and Kumya Youth Coal Mine.

Chapter 4 conducts a multidimensional analysis of North Korean industries using the reconstructed database. Trends in industry-related and non-industry-related coverage vary over time, reflecting fluctuations in production and investment activities across sectors. The regional distribution of major industries also differs substantially, shaped by natural, geographic, and demographic factors. With respect to the “20×10 Policy for Regional Development,” the analysis finds that some regions were selected based on their importance as benchmarks for policy success, while others ― characterized by poor living conditions ― were prioritized in line with the policy’s stated objectives.

Chapter 5 combines the reconstructed database with satellite-based nighttime light data and applies panel regressions and event study methodologies to examine whether reported investment and production activities are linked to actual increases in operations and electricity usage. The results indicate that both investment and production reports are positively and significantly correlated with nighttime light intensity. In the event study, investment reports are treated as events, with the month preceding the report serving as the reference period. The average post-event effect over 0~12 months shows an approximately 7.1% increase in nighttime light intensity, statistically significant at the 5% level, with positive and significant effects concentrated in the 7~12 month window. This suggests a persistent increase in nighttime illumination around firms following reported investment activities. Furthermore, a weighted nighttime light index based on the frequency of investment and production reports exhibits high correlations with the Bank of Korea’s estimates of GDP by economic activity, particularly in the energy, light manufacturing, and heavy and chemical industries.

Overall, this study treats North Korean media reports not merely as propaganda but as a source of indirect evidence for understanding economic policy directions, sectoral priorities, and firm-level activities. While media reports do not directly capture macroeconomic fluctuations, the findings suggest that they can function as a useful tool for tracking micro-level industrial and firm dynamics. The analytical potential of this approach may be further enhanced through continued validation using alternative data sources such as satellite imagery.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Cultivating and Scaling Innovative Firms: Strategies for Creating New Growth Engine in Korea

Scale-up firms play a pivotal role in injecting new vitality into the economy and enhancing national competitiveness. Given the stagnant growth potential, it is increasingly important to create an ecosystem optimized for scale-up firms to grow and to establish an environment where high-growth firms can continuously emerge. However, in reality, many firms in Korea face various barriers during the scale-up process, including difficulties in securing skilled talent, utilizing digital tools, and expanding into global markets.

In response, this study examines whether Korea’s business ecosystem provides an environment where innovative and competitive firms can continuously grow beyond the domestic market into the global market. And by focusing on areas where such an environment is insufficiently provided, it presents policy directions and implementation strategies for transitioning to a more desirable ecosystem.

Consisting of four main chapters, the study emphasizes the following policy suggestions. First, as the decline in the proportion of high-growth firms weakens economic dynamism and job creation, the government must shift toward scale-up policies and establish an integrated management system to support these firms. Second, to enhance the global competitiveness of startups, it is essential to introduce a specialized visa focusing on innovation and growth potential, streamline permanent residency pathways, and expand tax benefits. Third, to encourage firms to pursue sustained growth in export markets, it is necessary to design export promotion programs that are performance-based and tied to their success in export markets. Fourth, revitalizing industry-academia-research collaboration requires a demand-driven policy approach, increased participation from large and mid-sized firms, patent box incentives, and strengthened industry linkages with public research institutes.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Monetary Policy Transmission to the Korean Bond Market

This study quantitatively examines the transmission channels through which domestic and external monetary policy shocks affect the yields of Korean Treasury Bonds (KTBs). To this end, it proposes a new methodology that decomposes long-term KTB yields into expected policy rate paths and term premia and analyzes the interaction between monetary policy and the government bond market through this decomposition. Specifically, the study develops and estimates a four-factor linear term structure model that incorporates gradual structural changes in the level of the KTB yield curve. A comparison with the conventional three-factor model shows that the proposed four-factor model is statistically superior.

The estimation results indicate that, when yields are decomposed into trend and cyclical components, cyclical fluctuations account for a larger share of yield variation at shorter maturities, whereas trend components dominate at longer maturities. The expected policy rate path is extracted from the estimated term premia, suggesting that policy rates are expected to remain broadly stable in the near term and decline gradually thereafter. Analysis of the interaction between monetary policy and the bond market shows that policy rate shocks significantly raise expected policy rates, while shocks to expected policy rates also lead to increases in the actual policy rate. This implies a high degree of mutual credibility between the central bank and the government bond market.

Using this decomposition, the study examines the effects of domestic and U.S. monetary policy shocks on KTB yields. Domestic monetary policy shocks generate significant spillovers across the entire yield curve, from short- to long-term maturities. Short-term yields respond mainly through changes in the expected policy rate path, whereas long-term yields respond more strongly through adjustments in term premia. In contrast, U.S. federal funds rate shocks do not exert statistically significant effects on KTB yields. However, U.S. forward guidance and quantitative easing shocks exert meaningful impacts. Quantitative easing shocks produce larger short-term effects, while forward guidance shocks exhibit greater persistence. Nevertheless, these spillovers are considerably shorter-lived than those from domestic monetary policy shocks, highlighting the relative independence of Korea’s monetary policy.

The study also analyzes the Korean corporate bond market in the context of domestic and external monetary policy. Although the corporate bond market has expanded steadily in terms of outstanding issuance, secondary market liquidity remains limited, with turnover ratios substantially lower than those in the government bond market and trading concentrated in financial bonds. U.S. monetary tightening is found to reduce corporate bond trading volumes and widen credit spreads, with a 25 bp increase in the U.S. policy rate leading to an immediate spread widening of 11―13 bp. Over a horizon of one to three months, corporate bond spreads increase by 28―56 bp. Domestic monetary policy shocks also have significant effects on corporate bond yields, with particularly pronounced responses in lower-rated (BBB-) bonds. By contrast, firm-level financial conditions do not appear to systematically influence the sensitivity of corporate bond yields to U.S. monetary policy shocks, likely reflecting a flight-to-quality behavior during tightening episodes.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR North Korea-Russia Alignment: Impacts on the North Korean Economy and Implications

This study conducts a multifaceted analysis of the evolving relationship between North Korea and Russia following the Russia Ukraine war, employing objective data and rigorous quantitative methodologies. Using big data based indicators that quantify interstate relations, the study first examines trends in North Korea Russia relations over the past decade. The analysis shows that bilateral relations deteriorated sharply after 2016, when Russia, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, joined international sanctions against North Korea. Relations began to recover gradually after 2018, as North Korea pursued summit diplomacy and sought re-engagement with the global community. In 2020, this recovery was again disrupted when North Korea sealed its borders, citing COVID-19 preventive measures. This trajectory reversed once more following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, ushering in a swift alignment of strategic interests and closer bilateral ties that brought cooperation to a level unprecedented in recent history.

The study next examines North Korea Russia external economic relations through a data-driven lens. North Korea’s foreign trade structure remains heavily oriented toward China, with Russia accounting for only a marginal share. Nevertheless, Russia continues to serve as a key supplier of strategic goods, including petroleum products and power generation equipment. Russian investment in North Korea has been largely confined to transportation and logistics infrastructure, and Russian firms have generally maintained a cautious stance due to high political risks and the burden of international sanctions. However, the outbreak of the Russia Ukraine war has altered this dynamic. Russia’s acute labor shortages have coincided with North Korea’s need to secure foreign currency, and there are indications that the overseas dispatch of North Korean workers has continued despite the sanctions environment. In the tourism sector, while North Korea has sought to attract Russian tourists, foreign currency earnings remain negligible, suggesting that the economic spillover effects from tourism cooperation are likely to remain marginal.

Furthermore, the study empirically evaluates the impact of North Korea Russia military cooperation on the North Korean economy. Combining the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET)’s North Korean Industry and Enterprise Database with satellite nighttime light imagery and jangmadang(market) exchange rate and price data, the analysis finds that production activity increased significantly in regions centered on heavy industry and military-related industries following the strengthening of military cooperation. In particular, nighttime light intensity rose sharply for firms producing artillery shells and small arms, directly related to the Russia Ukraine war. In contrast, industrial activity in light industries, including food processing, declined, indicating an intensifying pattern of unbalanced, military-centered growth. This trend is also corroborated by the Bank of Korea’s estimates of North Korea’s economic growth rates. Since 2023, heavy and chemical industries have shown notably strong growth, while light industries have remained stagnant. These findings suggest that while military cooperation has bolstered productivity in specific sectors, especially military and heavy industries, these gains have not extended to the civilian economy. Moreover, given recent spikes in exchange rates and prices, it remains debatable whether Russian supplies of food and petroleum products have improved general living standards. Overall, the post-cooperation growth of the North Korean economy appears structurally skewed toward the military sector rather than a broad-based industrial recovery.

These findings offer several policy implications. North Korea is widely viewed as one of the primary beneficiaries of the Russia Ukraine war. Although the specific goods and quantities North Korea has received in exchange for military supplies and troop deployments remain unclear, the exchange has likely had a positive impact on the North Korean economy. This study demonstrates that heavy and chemical industries, including munitions factories, have been the principal beneficiaries of the deepening alignment. However, the expansion of military supplies to Russia warrants close attention, as it may induce broader changes to North Korea’s industrial structure and technological capabilities that extend beyond simple military cooperation. While increased munitions production stimulates core heavy industrial sectors, including metals, machinery, chemicals, and electronics―potentially catalyzing civilian industries and improving household welfare to some extent―the domestic markets are mired in severe instability, marked by soaring prices, exchange rate volatility, and intensified state control following the COVID-19 pandemic. This appears to have exacerbated the polarization between the formal sector, which reaps the rewards from closer ties, and the marginalized informal sector. Should the Russia Ukraine war end, the munitions-driven special demand of Russia will subside. If the North Korean regime maintains its strict control over jangmadangs(markets) after the boom, the economic hardships facing the North Korean population are likely to intensify.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR The Impact of Increased Government Bond Issuance and Policy Directions

This study analyzes the repercussions of the sharp increase in government bond issuance following the economic crisis induced by COVID-19. The surge in the issuance of government bonds in South Korea was substantial, driven by the need for financial resources to support expansive fiscal policies in response to the pandemic. As government bond issuance rises, so does the yield on government bonds. Given that the demand in the financial market comprises households, businesses, the government, and external sectors, the increased issuance not only affects government bond yields but also leads to a rise in interest rates faced by households and businesses.

Conversely, the study explores the impact of government bond buy-backs on yield changes, offering a direction opposite to that of increased issuance. Utilizing a dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with macro factors, including macroeconomic variables, the study estimates changes in the yield curve resulting from both increased issuance and buy-backs. Empirical analysis reveals that a 1 trillion KRW increase in government bond issuance leads to a 2.5 to 2.9 basis points rise in yields, particularly pronounced in the medium to long-term maturities. Conversely, a 1 trillion KRW increase in government bond buy-backs results in a 1.9 to 2.1 basis points decrease in yields, with a more significant impact on medium to long-term maturities with relatively less demand.

Moving on to domestic demand factors, the study examines the influence of macroprudential regulations on government bond yields. Specifically, it analyzes the impact of restrictions on securities firms' participation in the call market and banking sector liquidity regulations, such as the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR). These regulations, introduced to maintain stability in financial systems post-global financial crisis, have direct and indirect effects on government bond demand, consequently influencing market interest rates and resource allocation.

The analysis indicates that restricting securities firms' call market participation to below 25% of equity leads to a substantial increase in securities firms' participation in the repo market. Consequently, the demand for government bonds by securities firms increases, resulting in a yield decrease of approximately 10.8 to 12.5 basis points. Similarly, the phased introduction of LCR regulations leads to increased demand for government bonds by banks, contributing to a yield decrease of around 6.1 to 7.3 basis points. These findings underscore the importance of considering the ripple effects on financial markets through government bond demand when adjusting the intensity of financial stability regulations.

Lastly, the study examines the impact of external uncertainties, represented by global volatility (VIX), on foreign capital flows and exchange rates. Traditionally, an increase in VIX corresponds to capital outflows and currency depreciation. However, recent observations indicate a decrease in the magnitude of these effects, suggesting a shift in the behavior of foreign investors in government bonds. The study concludes by highlighting the need to consider the potential effects on financial markets through government bond demand when adjusting or introducing financial stability regulations in the future.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Drivers of Part-time Work Growth and Policy Recommendations

This study examines the causes of part-time work growth in South Korea over the past decade and offers policy insights. Chapter 2 analyzes 2012-2022 data from the Additional Survey by Type of Employment of Economically Active Population Survey and the Survey of Labor Conditions by Employment Type, identifying when and which types of part-time workers increased. The growth, notable during 2016-2019, was primarily driven by older workers, part-time workers with extremely short hours (under 15 hours weekly), and service sector employees. It proposes three hypotheses: (1) workforce composition shifts, including aging and service sector expansion; (2) the adoption of a nonlinear labor cost schedule with a significant discontinuity at 15 hours per week; and (3) the minimum wage increases in 2018-2019.

Chapter 3 employs DiNardo et al.’s (1996) decomposition methodology to assess the contribution of workforce composition changes to part-time work growth. Findings reveal limited explanatory power, as within-group part-time trends dominate and declining youth employment offsets rising elderly employment, suggesting institutional and policy factors as primary drivers.

Chapter 4 analyzes the growth of extremely short-hour work driven by institutional factors affecting labor demand, focusing on a nonlinear labor cost schedule with a significant discontinuity at 15 hours per week (or 60 hours per month). Enhanced compliance with this institutional structure in the 2010s, measured by industry-level variations in social insurance enrollment rates for workers with 60-99 monthly hours, strongly correlates with the growth of part-time workers with very short hours, particularly among new hires.

Chapter 5 conducts an event-study analysis with a continuous treatment variable of the effects of the 2018-2019 minimum wage increases on working hours distribution, finding substantial wage increases for low-wage workers but no clear causal link to the growth of part-time workers with very short hours, which follows the pre-2017 trend. Evidence suggests that this growth likely stems from sustained improvement in compliance with the nonlinear labor cost schedule analyzed in Chapter 4 rather than minimum wage increases.

Chapter 6 concludes with a summary of empirical findings and offers policy recommendations to reduce discontinuities in the nonlinear labor cost schedule at 15 hours per week. Focusing on the Weekly Holiday Allowance, it outlines institutional reform directions and addresses implementation challenges.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Market Price System in North Korea: Policy Perspectives

This study revisits North Korea’s market price system to (i) address recent doubts about the reliability of external price observations using a long-run commodity-price series and (ii) broaden analysis beyond staples to include services, labor, finance, and quasi-taxes. Based on an original field survey in Pyongyang, Sinuiju, and Hyesan from September 2023 to October 2024, it compiles a long-run commodity-price series, capturing 55 service prices and approximately 40 quasi-tax items. Econometric time-series analysis reveals linkages between key North Korean commodity prices, Chinese and international benchmark prices, and the market exchange rate (North Korean won/U.S. dollar), while descriptive statistics systematize the incidence and regional variation of non-commodity prices.

Three main findings emerge. First, despite well-known reliability issues in North Korean market price data, externally collected observations remain informative, as inconsistencies across sources reflect equilibrium features of thin, segmented markets rather than mere reporting errors. Second, commodity prices show a relatively stable, competitive formation with clear international pass-through effects before the 2020 border closure, whereas service fees, unofficial financial rates, and quasi-taxes show greater dispersion and stronger dependence on local market power and informality. Third, quasi-taxes impose a significant economic burden, with households facing a rolling menu of 35-40 compulsory contributions―averaging four items per month and totaling 34,000-50,000 North Korean won―consuming a notable share of disposable income.

These results underscore the need to integrate non-commodity prices into future assessments of household welfare, regional inequality, and the transmission of external shocks within North Korea’s hybrid economy.

Summary

Research Monograph KOR Study on the Efficient Utilization of Human Resources in the Era of Population Decline

As South Korea experiences a demographic decline, the labor market must swiftly adapt to mitigate its economic impact. Expanding the participation of underutilized groups―such as older workers, people with disabilities, women, and immigrants―can help address its shrinking labor force. However, their underutilization stems from a complex interplay of multiple factors, and poorly designed policies for their economic engagement may lead to unintended consequences. A thorough, nuanced understanding of each group's unique challenges and circumstances is essential for setting realistic priorities for effective policy intervention.

For older workers, effective labor market integration demands both targeted support and phased, comprehensive labor market reforms. In an aging society, maintaining workforce participation or facilitating reintegration is increasingly important, even if individuals experience disabilities over their lifetime. Additionally, addressing the underutilization of women requires not only tackling work-family balance challenges during childbearing and childcare but also gender segregation across industries and occupations. Meanwhile, the growing presence of foreign-born workers, particularly long-term residents, should be carefully paced to minimize potential sociocultural disruptions.

Short-term policies (within five years) should prioritize productivity growth and attracting foreign talent. Mid-term initiatives (five to ten years) should focus on structural labor market reforms. Long-term investments (over ten years) should strengthen education and skills development while fostering gender inclusivity and social integration.

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